2, 289–310. Professor Ulrike Hahn, University of London Abstract: Decades of research have come to the conclusions that people are unrealistically optimistic about their futures. Further research is needed to examine the relationship between optimism and event frequency, by varying events by their absolute frequency as well as by their frequency relative to each other. The order of these four tasks was varied between participants. 33, 61–83. A society will “feel” very unequal when, for example as in India, a substantial proportion of the population live below the international poverty line alongside other members of the same society living in extreme affluence. For this group both bad and good events deemed to be more controllable attracted greater optimism. For such authors the model is of “the tendency (of the healthy brain) to generate images of positive future events” (Sharot et al., 2007, p. 102), and a lack of optimism is thought to indicate poor mental health. In versions 1 and 3, the instruction on the questionnaire read “The chances of an event occurring in your life may be the same or different from the chances of the event occurring in the lives of people like you. Indian J. Psychiatry 49, 189–194. 17, 33–50. However, they draw from wellness in different ways. Abramson, L. Y., Seligman, M. E., and Teasdale, J. D. (1978). 104, 9–26. Windschitl, P. D., Rose, J. P., Stalkfleet, M. T., and Smith, A. R. (2008). In the current study the frequency of bad event items did affect optimism, although the effect was relative rather than absolute and only evident in one group. 109, 374–283. 98, 224–253. Adherence and psychological adjustment among women at high risk for breast cancer. Pocock, D. F. (1973). Taylor, S. E., and Brown, J. D. (1988). The cultural shaping of depression: somatic symptoms in China, psychological symptoms in North America? The term ‘unrealistic’ … UK Statistics Authority, London. Alvi, A. Cultural variations on optimistic and pessimistic bias for self versus a sibling: is there evidence for self-enhancement in the West and for self-criticism in the East where the reference group is specified? Psychol. Psychol. 117, 300–313. We are interested in whether cognitive states that are unrealistically optimistic are belief states, whether they are false, and whether they are epistemically irrational. But self-enhancement is only one of the motivational mechanisms thought to be involved in unrealistic optimism. See Figure 2. It is unlikely that the current study is subject to this problem as few of the events were very rare or of the kind associated with firm probability forecasts. See Figure 1. Cult. Culture’s Consequences: Comparing values, Behaviours, Institutions and Organisations Across Nations. 47, 441–451. Psychol. Caste in 21st Century India: competing narratives. Soc. Sinha, D., and Tripathi, R. C. (1994). Nature 450, 102–105. The New Japan: Debunking Cultural Stereotypes. Cross Cult. Much research indicates that people underestimate their personal probability of encountering negative events. Individualism and Collectivism. Comparative optimism was shown for bad events, with Indian participants showing higher levels of optimism than English participants [F(1,283) = 5.62, p = 0.018]. This means that optimists are generally happier with their lives than pessimists. To recruit participants in clerical occupations, a local researcher went door-to-door in several housing associations in a lower middle income area of Kurla, Greater Mumbai. The current research used a methodology which to date has found less or no unrealistic optimism in certain East Asian collectivist cultures. As can be seen in Table 6, multiple regressions indicated that this factor was significantly related to optimism/pessimism in three of the four groups. 32, 93–105. Tables 4 and 5 show responses to the individual items for good events according to average difference between expectation of event for self and for other, where optimism is indicated by a positive score – i.e., the expectation is that the chance for self is x percent more likely than the chance for other, and pessimism is indicated by a negative score – i.e., the expectation is that the chance for self is x percent less likely than the chance for other. Lower SES Indian participants were also pessimistic regarding another financial based event (“exotic foreign travel”) and the only bad item they were not optimistic about was their relative chance of experiencing “financial problems.” But it is unlikely that these financially related events can be held responsible for the lack of optimism shown for good events. Matsumoto, D. (2007). Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Within nationalities the ranking of the 11 good event items did not vary by SES, but the desirability rankings of the good events between nationalities was not similar [rho(9) = 0.48, p = 0.482]. 32, 311–328. In Search of Self in India and Japan. Asian J. Soc. Perceived control and the optimistic bias: a meta-analytic review. East Asian cultures are paradigmatic examples of cultures with an interdependent rather than an independent construal of self, but they may also have related characteristics which play a part in their lack optimistic bias. The most universally accepted six basic emotions are anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, and surprise. Rev. Unrealistic optimism in smokers: implications for smoking myth endorsement and self-protective motivation. Cross Cult. Pers. (2011) do raise the issue of whether self-enhancement might vary not only between societies but within societies. Across good events, Indians on average estimated slightly lower frequencies (M = 44.3%, SD = 14.99) than did English participants [M = 47.9%, SD = 12.55; F(1,283) = 3.93, p = 0.049]. The position regarding comparative optimism for good events was more complex. Soc. Bull. J. In the case of good events a base rate bias of the kind suggested by Chambers and Windschitl (2004) and Rose et al. Optimists are seen as more socially attractive than pessimists, research finds. In order to compare the overall rates of unrealistic optimism between India and England among two socioeconomic groups, two 2 × 2 (nationality by SES) analyses of variance were conducted – one for comparative risk perceptions averaged across bad events, and one for comparative risk perceptions averaged across good events. A. However, some studies have found evidence of optimistic bias in non-Western interdependent cultures. (2007). Early death of spouse and suicide were rated as the very worst events and financial difficulties and being burgled as the least bad events. Much of the research on comparative optimism has investigated respondents’ expectations about their likelihood of experiencing negative life events. Proposing that base rate biases are more detrimental to the judgment of the probability of others experiencing events than they are to probability judgments concerning the self, the authors interpret the optimistic bias shown in their study as being related more to a “culture-free” cognitive bias than to a “culture-specific” motivational bias. While unrealistic optimism is one of the most robust phenomena in human psychology, many have … It is also the case that although social stratification is a historic and current feature of English society, India’s social structure is characterized not only by socioeconomic class but also by elaborate hierarchy and differentiation in the form of caste (Srinivas, 1996; Desai and Dubey, 2011). Their data demonstrated comparative optimism in that student participants listed more desirable and fewer neutral and undesirable events in their future in comparison to the average student’s future, and also showed comparative optimism in their estimates of the likelihood of those events. The Idea of India. 13 Nat. Psychol. Harkness, J. Specifically, an attenuation of the common “unrealistic optimism” bias (UO) was expected for OCD patients. However in explaining the apparent connection between self-enhancement and income inequality, Loughnan et al. Unrealistic optimism and pessimism are event-specific biases “manifested by individuals, but measured at the level of the group” (Jansen et al., 2011, p. 2). In addition to addressing theoretical issues concerning culture and unrealistic optimism, the results of the study may have some bearing on applied health issues. Ther. Shweder, R. A., Jensen, L. A., and Goldstein, W. M. (1995). Self-affirmation moderates effects of unrealistic optimism and pessimism on reactions to tailored risk feedback. The current study, despite asking participants to make separate judgments about their own chances and the chances for others, found that Indian participants showed high rates of comparative optimism for negative events. Psychol. This video is unavailable. J. It is this kind of research, particularly when respondents are invited to make separate judgments about their own and “the other’s” chances, that finds low or zero rates of comparative optimism among those from East Asian cultures (Heine and Hamamura, 2007; Rose et al., 2008). (2012). Taken as a whole the results show that, for three of the four groups studied, neither event controllability/desirability nor frequency played a part in the determination of relative optimism for bad events. Miller, J. G. (1984). Ever since its original demonstration by Weinstein (1980) a great deal of empirical work and theoretical attention has been devoted to the phenomenon of unrealistic optimism. The ratio scores give more transparent information on score distribution than is evident from the standard deviation of the average difference scores. Cardiovascular disease (and coronary heart disease in particular) is the main cause of death in England (British Heart Foundation, 2012). Human Development Report. Let your preference be your guide? Background: Overestimation of threat (OET) is ascribed a pathogenetic role in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). London: Nicholas Brealey Publishing. Lack of unrealistic optimism is held to relate to a reluctance to self-enhance thought to be characteristic of a collectivist culture comprised of interdependent selves (Heine, 2003). India is the location for a set of cultures characterized as having an interdependent concept of self (Roland, 1988; Mascalo and Bhatia, 2002; Mascalo et al., 2004)1. Wkly. Few if any studies have compared rates of unrealistic optimism and self-enhancement for different socioeconomic groups within a culture. Cognit. The ranking of bad event items for controllability was very similar between nationalities (rho(9) = 0.77, p = 0.005), and did not vary by SES. 14, 1475–1479. Finally, based on the results of a factor analysis of event frequency, controllability and desirability, their possible confounding role was investigated using a series of multiple regressions to assess the relationship of these factors to comparative optimism for bad and good events for each of the four participant groups. Savani, K., Markus, H. R., and Conner, A. L. (2008). Optimists are also able to recover from disappointments more quickly by attending to positive outcomes to a greater extent than negative ones. Polit. What are the characteristics of optimism? This idea created the concept, “The Power of Positive … For this group higher optimism was expressed about events which were judged as more controllable and less undesirable (i.e., ranked as less bad among bad events). “Aligning development to values in India,” in Social Values and Development: Asian Perspectives, eds D. Sinha and H. S. R. Kao (New Delhi: Sage), 314–332. 84, 569–581. The clear finding in the current study that Indian participants showed unrealistic optimism on negative items, and that wealthier Indian participants also showed unrealistic optimism on positive items, demonstrates that the lack of unrealistic optimism found in some East Asian cultures is not generalizable to other Asian cultures. 23, 41–58. Rev. Soc. Yamawaki, N. (2012). There was no effect for SES [F(1,283) = 0.96, p = 0.327] nor was there an interaction between SES and nationality [F(1,283) = 0.45, p = 0.505]. 46, 40–49. 11, 93–102. Treat. 53, 133–160. A further analysis of the perception of good events was conducted in light of the apparent nationality differences in how the items were ranked for desirability and for controllability. Factor analysis was used to explore the relationship between event frequency (for “similar others”), event controllability and event desirability as initial multiple regressions looking at the relationship of these three variables to optimism/pessimism for bad and good events separately, revealed high levels of multicollinearity between the three independent variables (indicated by pair-wise correlations above 0.80 and VIF values >5). This bias leads us to believe that we are less likely to suffer from misfortune and more likely to attain success than reality would suggest. 130, 813–838. A number of universalist discourses surround research on unrealistic optimism. Factor 1 explained 47% of the variance and comprised controllability and desirability. Table 4. The absolutely unrealistic individual is … When life hands you lemons, make lemonade. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Socialisation for Competence. Unrealistic pessimism, particularly about the likelihood of experiencing positive events, may be indicative of depression (Miranda and Mennin, 2007. 21, 391–398. Optimism scores for bad events did not vary by gender or by task order/questionnaire version. Impact Factor 2.067 | CiteScore 3.2More on impact ›, Contextual shaping of health and well-being: Contributions from cultural-clinical psychology Tyler, T. R. & Cook, F. L. (1984). Seeing the glass half full instead of half empty. Child. As a personality trait, it is presumed to be stable with little scope for change and is alternatively described as big optimism (Peterson, 2000). Matsumoto, D. (2002). Berry, J. W. (1989). The majority of the early research on unrealistic optimism in the 1980s and 1990s was conducted on participants in the USA (q.v. Harris and Hahn (2011) have recently and controversially suggested that the phenomenon of unrealistic optimism is neither a genuine cognitive nor motivational risk bias but is only an artifact of the kinds of response scales conventionally used in unrealistic optimism studies. For higher SES Indians event frequency, unrelated to desirability or controllability, negatively predicted relative optimism although less powerfully than desirability/controllability. … Those who underestimate the risk, take less action. Citing Tripathi (1988), Mishra (1994) proposes that for Indians in-group orientation may not signify collectivism in the “normal” sense but be used as a strategy for enhancement of the self or one’s own family. (1978). Derné, S. (2008). Sixty participants were recruited in India: 30 each (15 male, 15 female) from the two different socioeconomic areas used in the main study. A robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are “unrealistically optimistic” in their judgments of risk concerning future life events. 11, 4–27. Asking participants to assess their own likelihood of experiencing an event, and assess separately the likelihood of a specific comparison group experiencing the same event, is known as the indirect method. 103, 54–69. Optimistic people are self-motivated people. 34, 496–510. In contrast, in the light of Loughnan et al.’s (2011) demonstration that income inequality relates to self-enhancement, then given that India and UK have very similar Gini coefficient income inequality scores, there are grounds for expecting that Indian and English participants will show very similar rates of unrealistic optimism4. Psychol. Soc. Judged frequency of lethal events. Although not optimistic on every item, the higher SES Indian group on average continued to show comparative optimism expecting to be more likely to experience these events than other people like themselves. Health Commun. So pessimistic people are usually pretty negative. A second set of 92 participants was recruited to evaluate the 11 good and 11 bad events in terms of their controllability and their desirability. Boulder, CO: Westview. Since for this group optimism regarding having a heart attack correlated very highly with optimism on many other items such as not going bankrupt, and not having an accident while on public transport, it can be safely interpreted that the optimism relates to a general psychological orientation rather than reflecting the practice of actual health promoting behaviors. 13, 657–678. Unrealistic optimism is defined by a general tendency to overestimate the probability of experiencing positive life events, and to underestimate the probability of experiencing adverse life events compared to a similar other person's risk (Weinstein, 1980; Weinstein et al., 2005). Tables 2 and 3 show responses to the individual items for bad events according to average difference between expectation of event for self and for other, where optimism is indicated by a negative score – i.e., the expectation is that the chance for self is x percent less likely than the chance for other. J. Pers. More highly valued events were judged more controllable and more frequent than less valued events, and were more subject to relative optimism (or as in the case of the lower SES Indian sample were less subject to relative pessimism). Langer, E. (1975). Bull. For lower SES Indians (as was the case for two of the three other groups, and for the fourth group the trend was in the same direction) optimism for the good events was related to events being judged as more controllable, more highly valued and estimated as more frequent. Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health. Table 1. Psychol. The authors of the Chennai study conclude that there is a clear need to increase mental health services in India. This did not vary by SES, but the interaction between SES and nationality approached significance [F(1,283) = 3.45, p = 0.064] suggesting that the lower Indian frequencies were a feature of the lower SES Indians’ judgments (40.7%, SD = 16.48) and not of the higher SES Indians’ judgments whose frequency scores averaged at 47.3% (SD = 12.89) and were thus very similar to the judged frequencies offered by the English participants. Across bad events, Indians gave on average lower frequencies (M = 26.1%, SD = 12.81) than did English participants [M = 35.8%, SD = 13.69; F(1,283) = 28.25, p < 0.001]. The primary aim of the study was to investigate unrealistic optimism in two different cultures, with participants drawn from two different socioeconomic groups within those cultures. The authors speculate that “messages of moderation may not be welcome during such periods of change” (p. 601). There are two closely related grounds for thinking that Indian participants will show less unrealistic optimism than English participants. In this entry we distinguish between different types of unrealistic optimism. It is also known as unrealistic optimism or comparative optimism. Harris, A. J. L., and Hahn, U. Res. The illusion of control. There was stronger evidence of base rate bias in optimism/pessimism for good events. (2008). Srinivas, M. N. (1962). Why is self-enhancement low in certain collectivist cultures? For example, participants showed high levels of optimism about divorce (i.e., thought that their chances of experiencing this event were less than the chance for similar others). A repeated measures ANOVA indicates that while both Indian and English participants ranked the good event items involving others as more desirable than the items involving self [F(1,90) = 32.21, p < 0.001], there is a suggestion that this difference was more striking for Indian than for English participants [average difference in rank between items involving others and items involving self: India = 2.08, SD = 2.23; England = 1.07, SD = 2.74; F(1,90) = 3.65, p = 0.059]. “Lay explanations of the causes of diabetes in India and in the UK,” in Representations of Health, Illness and Handicap, eds I. Markova and R. Farr (Chur: Harwood Academic Publishers), 163–188. Science 255, 946–952. J. Abnorm. 4, 39–58. 39, 237–250. London: British Heart Foundation. 43, 1191–1204. 46, 961–978. (2008). Annu. A study by McKenna (1993) indicated that, among UK participants, unrealistic optimism was not so much a generalized expectancy for a positive outcome but more closely related to the extent to which the participant had control over the outcome. Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviours, Institutions and Organisations Across Nations, 2nd Edn, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Three male and three female English-Marathi bilingual Indian informants were recruited in Mumbai to evaluate the Weinstein future event list (shortened to 22 items to exclude relatively trivial events such as “having gum problems” and “in bed ill for two or more days” and exclude items only relevant to students such as “graduating in top third of class”). Br. Optimism bias is common and transcends gender, ethnicity, nationality and age. J. Pers. Psychol. Cross Cult. J. Pers. Study 4 thus aimed to create an experimental situation that was as controlled as those in Studies 2 and 3, but with the addition of a genuine cost to participants. In terms of absolute levels of optimism/pessimism on good events, lower SES Indians were also pessimistic about “son/daughter getting a very good job,” and not optimistic on any of the remaining good event items even though some of those items had been judged by a comparable group of participants as controllable – i.e., as reasonably or even certainly possible to make happen. It was considered important to sample from different socioeconomic groups not only in relation to the study’s particular interest in inequality but also because psychology in general has been guilty of oversampling from a very restricted age and educational pool with possible consequent problems for the generalizability of studies’ results (Henrich et al., 2010). Psychol. J. Psychiatry 184, 10–20. ¿Cuáles son los 10 mandamientos de la Biblia Reina Valera 1960? McKenna, F. (1993). Desai, S., and Dubey, A. London: ONS. Optimism bias is common and transcends gender, ethnicity, nationality and age. Larger, enriched cages are associated with “optimistic” response biases in captive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Two studies investigated the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about future life events. Psychol. Received: 31 August 2012; Accepted: 04 January 2013; Published online: 13 February 2013. More you think positively, more you get closer to the good things in your life. It was immediately apparent that some of Weinstein’s original items would not be culturally appropriate in England or India. With the aim of matching occupation and status to the English groups, Indian participants were recruited from housing associations in two suburban areas, one middle class and one lower middle class, in Maharashtra. 10, 1345–1347. Jansen, L. A., Appelbaum, P. S., Klein, W. M. P., Weinstein, N. D., Cook, W., Fogel, J. S., et al. It has important implications in many economic and managerial contexts, yet economists, managers and policy makers still ignore it or fail to understand its … Two 2 × 2 (nationality by SES) analyses of variance were conducted, i.e., good and bad events were analyzed separately. An interesting aspect of the data is the contrasting profiles of the higher and lower SES Indian groups. It thus reflects a belief that future conditions will work out for the best. Forty participants (17 males, 23 females) had been educated to first degree level or beyond and were in lower managerial/professional occupations. New York: Penguin. 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